2 min read • March 06, 2025
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Shohei Ohtani enters the 2025 season as MLB’s biggest two-way superstar, but his return to the mound after his second Tommy John surgery and offseason shoulder surgery could significantly impact his power at the plate. With sportsbooks setting his home run total at 41.5, bettors should consider the challenges ahead before banking on the over.
This offseason, Ohtani underwent arthroscopic surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder and is aiming to return to the mound after missing all of 2024 from his 2nd Tommy John surgery. This could mean the Dodgers will have a carefully managed workload to protect both his surgically repaired elbow and shoulder.
Players recovering from major arm injuries often experience reduced power and bat speed, particularly early in their return. A notable example is Fernando Tatis Jr., who underwent the same shoulder surgery as Shohei Ohtani in 2022 and saw his home run total drop to 25 in 2023 after hitting 42 in 2021. Similarly, Cody Bellinger had shoulder surgery in 2020 and has not hit more than 26 home runs in a season since, a sharp decline from his career-high 47 homers in 2019. These cases highlight the potential impact of Ohtani’s injuries on his power production moving forward. In 2023, the last season he pitched and hit, Ohtani hit 44 home runs for the Angels.
Additionally, Ohtani’s return to pitching will likely lead to more rest days as he balances his workload. The Dodgers will prioritize keeping him fresh for the long haul, which could mean fewer at-bats and less overall volume at the plate. With the combination of a limited spring training ramp-up, possible days off, and a focus on long-term durability, it’s easy to see why hitting 42+ homers might be an uphill battle.
While Ohtani’s talent is undeniable, the combination of injury recovery, workload management, and potential adjustments in his swing mechanics make the under on his home run total an intriguing bet for the 2025 season.
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