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NFL 3 STAR spreads are 68% over 3 years
2025 Circa Millions 51-38-1 (57.3%) on spreads
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August 8 Update:
NFL WR season long plays are UP!
CFB Season Wins best bets are UP!
CFB Week 0 totals best bets are UP!
CFB Week 1 best bet side is UP!
I expect to post my NFL Power Ratings Sunday. To calculate a rough NFL spread, you would take the difference between the two teams. An Average team would be 0, an elite team like the Rams would by 7.5 So by example, if the Rams play an average team on a neutral site, the power ratings would make the line Rams -7.5. Home Field varies but is worth around 2 points.
Re: Futures. I anticipate playing many more individual players, with a focus on UNDERS. This has been a solid subset to win. In Fact, it is VERY rare I play "overs" as historically players just have gone UNDER over 60% of the time plus! I expect this will NOT continue, but I DO expect it stays at 55% plus on the UNDERs.
Re: Preseason. My favorite plays are typically smaller Road Dogs of around +2 or +2.5. I firmly believe the preseason market overvalues HFA, and further +1, +1.5 +2, +2.5 are SO valuable vs. regular season. Teams avoid ties, so they go for 2 late so often, causing games to land on 1 or 2 way more than during the regular season.
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Week 2 CFB selections will be up shortly, including totals. I'm seeing more books with sides and totals up early this year, so we won't wait. There will also likely be a few additional plays later in the week as I would rather wait for a possible favorable line move mid-week than have us bet a less than ideal number early.
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