2 min read • April 27, 2023
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Injuries can have a significant impact on a player’s draft stock in the NFL. If a player has a history of injuries or is currently recovering from an injury, their draft stock may drop considerably as teams may be hesitant to invest in a player with an uncertain future.
If a player is able to recover from an injury and demonstrate their ability to perform at a high level, their draft stock may actually increase. This is especially true if the injury occurred early in their college career and they were able to bounce back and continue to improve their game.
A player's injury history and ability to recover/perform will play a big role in determining their future success in the NFL.
Utilizing a player’s injury history to predict where they potentially end up is a brutal but profitable game. Here are our best bets utilizing all available injury information:
Texas Tech superstar edge rusher Tyree Wilson suffered a right foot fracture, and based on the injury mechanism, it's likely that he suffered a mid-foot Lisfranc fracture. The concerning news is that his recovery trajectory has been slow, and he was unable to participate in both the combine and Pro Day workouts.
As a result, his draft stock has been impacted, and he may no longer be locked into the second overall pick. It's possible that he may experience a slide in the draft due to his injury concerns.
Instead Texans will look to another edge player who has a clean injury history in Will Anderson. Anderson is NFL ready now without the baggage of a current injury like Wilson. Anderson should not only be the Texans pick at three but also the number one defensive player taken.
The former Tennesse Volunteer is recovering from a Nov. 19 ACL tear and will not be ready for the start of the upcoming NFL season. The dual threat QB will likely be drafted as a long-term project at QB on a team that has a proven starter.
This will allow him to recover his first year and not be pressured to take over a starter job. Typically the second year back from an ACL surgery is when a player looks like their pre-injury self.
Teams like the Raiders and Vikings are in play for Hooker as both have caretakers/proven starters at the QB position. Expect a slight fall but Hooker is still a top 20 talent despite injury.
Nolan Smith is a two-time National Champion and a projected first-round pick, but he suffered a torn right pectoral muscle in October missing the rest of the season. The former No. 1 overall prospect elected to have surgery on his torn pec but According to the Pro Football Docs, Smith is expected to recover fully and have no medical downgrade.
Pec tears are not uncommon, especially for defensive players: recent examples include Nakobe Dean, J.J. Watt, Kwon Alexander, and Eric Weddle. Nakobe Dean decided not to have surgery on his torn pec, and it caused him to slide to the third round because of not addressing the problem.
Overall, Smith's draft stock should not be affected by the injury but the number was set high and the LB is expected to fall right outside the top ten. Medically he will be ready to go for the 2023 season but with the injury happening so early in the season allowed others to hone their craft and recency bias has a few players ranked ahead of him.
Bresee was the number one prospect in the 2020 HS football recruiting class over Bryce Young, Will Anderson, Jalen Carter, and CJ Stroud. But a lengthy injury history at Clemson University and a lack of production make him an interesting story going into the 2023 draft. According to NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah, NFL teams are reportedly split between Bresee because of his injury history and stiffness.
In his college career, he’s missed a ton of games after suffering a torn ACL, surgery on his shoulder, and a kidney infection. Since the ACL injury was in 2021 and it wasn’t paired with other knee injuries, Bresee should have a better 2023 season, according to the Pro Football Docs. The ACL tear and other minor injuries he had shouldn’t medically downgrade him.
We’ve also seen teams take chances on players with a more damaging injury history in the draft, such as when the 49ers drafted Javon Kinlaw. Kinlaw isn't exactly the best test case as he has dealt with numerous knee issues including undergoing an ACL construction. Bresee has the talent to get drafted in the first round but his history may drop him just outside the first round. Expect a small slide as teams will still value his skillset in the trenches.
The do-it-all cornerback dealt with a hamstring issue that caused him to miss the combine and the Fighting Illini pro day but was able to throw together his own individual workout doing everything including the 40 yard dash (4.43). Currently there are no injury concerns for the CB and is expected to be slotted to go as the first CB off board within the first 6 picks.
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