NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Browns vs. Titans — Two Bad Offenses, Two Good Defenses
Sometimes the best under opportunities come when neither team has a significant offensive advantage, and that's exactly what we have Sunday between Cleveland and Tennessee.
These are two dreadful offenses facing two defenses that are considerably better than the units they're going up against.
Cleveland has a legitimately good defense, while Tennessee's defense remains underrated. With the point spread essentially a pick'em, we expect both teams to play extremely conservatively, protect the football and let their defenses try to win the game.
Two of the NFL's Worst Offenses
Tennessee ranks dead last in the NFL at just 236.3 yards per game, while Cleveland ranks 29th at 267.5 yards per game.
Neither offense has demonstrated the ability to consistently sustain drives, and both struggle to convert opportunities into touchdowns.
Cleveland ranks 32nd in third-down conversion rate, while Tennessee ranks last in touchdown percentage. Those are significant problems when facing defenses capable of consistently getting stops.
The Browns are coming off an ugly 13-10 victory over Baltimore, a game that perfectly illustrates how Cleveland wants to win. The offense doesn't need to produce much when the defense is keeping opponents off the scoreboard.
Tennessee is coming off an upset victory over Indianapolis, but that win was fueled by three takeaways and special teams rather than sustained offensive production.
Offensive Injuries Add to the Under
Both offenses also have injury concerns worth monitoring.
Cleveland Browns:
C Elgton Jenkins (knee): Missed practice Wednesday, raising concerns about Cleveland's interior offensive line.
G Teven Jenkins (back): Also missed Wednesday's practice.
OT Tytus Howard (knee): Limited during the week.
WR Denzel Boston (foot): Appeared on the injury report.
WR KC Concepcion (calf/quad): Limited earlier in the week.
RB Quinshon Judkins (ankle) and Dylan Sampson (knee): Both appeared on the injury report.
Tennessee Titans:
WR Calvin Ridley (hip): Questionable after missing Friday's practice. His potential absence would further limit an already struggling passing attack.
RB Tyjae Spears: Appeared on the report for rest, rather than an injury.
The offensive line concerns for Cleveland and Ridley's uncertain availability for Tennessee only strengthen the case for a game dominated by defense.
Expect Conservative Football
This is where the small point spread becomes particularly important.
With Cleveland favored by just 1.5 points, neither coaching staff should feel the need to take unnecessary risks.
We expect both teams to prioritize field position, avoid turnovers and be perfectly comfortable punting on fourth-and-two rather than giving the opponent a short field.
Why take unnecessary chances when your defense is the strength of your team?
Cleveland has the defensive personnel to make life miserable for Tennessee's struggling offense, while the Titans have enough defensive talent and pass rush to prevent Cleveland from consistently moving the football.
This sets up as a game featuring long stretches without scoring, stalled drives and plenty of punts.
The total has already dropped from an opening number around 40.5 to 37.5, but we still see value on the under.
Both offenses rank near the bottom of the league, both defenses have a clear advantage in their respective matchups, and neither team has much incentive to play aggressively in what should be a close game.
We expect both coaching staffs to play it safe, take care of the football and trust their defenses.
That is exactly the type of game we want when betting an NFL under.
