Houston is much better than its 0-4 record suggests. In fact, the Texans have the underlying statistical profile of a team that should be closer to 2-2, and their offense is beginning to get healthier at wide receiver.

But there's a major difference between believing Houston is better than its record and believing the Texans deserve to be laying 7.5 points on the road against another NFL team.

That's where we see the value in Tennessee.

The Titans have certainly been disappointing, especially considering they entered the season with a projected win total around six games. However, their underlying performance hasn't been nearly as disastrous as their record might suggest.

From a yards-per-play perspective, Tennessee is only minus-0.3 yards per play, which is not the statistical profile of a team that should automatically be catching more than a touchdown at home against a winless opponent.

Houston Is Better Than 0-4, but Not an Elite Team

We agree that Houston has been unfortunate to start the season without a victory. Its underlying numbers suggest a more competitive team, and the offense has the potential to improve as its receiving corps gets healthier.

But even if we upgrade the Texans to the quality of a seven- or eight-win team, that still doesn't justify this spread.

Only elite NFL teams should routinely be laying more than a touchdown on the road. Houston has not demonstrated that level of superiority.

The market appears to be giving the Texans considerable credit for their underlying statistics while simultaneously punishing Tennessee too aggressively for its disappointing start.

Tennessee's Underlying Numbers Are Better Than the Market Suggests

The Titans were projected to win approximately six games entering the season. Even if we downgrade that expectation to four wins based on their early performance, the difference between these teams still isn't large enough to justify Houston -7.5 on the road.

Tennessee's minus-0.3 yards-per-play differential is particularly important. It suggests the Titans have been outplayed, but not to the degree implied by a spread this large.

There's also a meaningful distinction between asking Tennessee to win outright and asking the Titans to remain within one touchdown at home.

We don't need Tennessee to be the better team. We need the game to be more competitive than the market expects.

Our Power Ratings Make Houston a 5.5-Point Favorite

From our perspective, this should be closer to Houston -5.5.

At that number, we're properly accounting for Houston's superior underlying performance, Tennessee's disappointing start and the Texans' improving offensive health.

At Houston -7.5, however, we're getting two additional points of value, including the important hook above the touchdown.

That's a meaningful difference in an NFL game where scoring margins frequently land on key numbers.

Houston may very well be the better football team, and we wouldn't be surprised if the Texans finally get their first victory of the season.

But winning the game and covering a 7.5-point road spread are two entirely different things.

We're not interested in laying more than a touchdown with a winless team that profiles closer to a seven- or eight-win club than a legitimate contender.

Tennessee has underperformed expectations, but its underlying efficiency numbers suggest it remains competitive enough to stay within this number at home.

The Pick: Tennessee Titans +7.5 -115