The Bears put up the most eye-catching score of Week 1, destroying Carolina 59-37, while Minnesota needed a massive second-half comeback to beat Green Bay 39-22.
Those final scores tell one story.
The underlying performances tell another.
And at Vikings +4.5, we believe the market has overreacted to Chicago's blowout victory.
Don't Get Fooled by the Bears' Final Score
Chicago deserves credit for putting 59 points on the board, but the game wasn't nearly as lopsided statistically as the final 22-point margin suggests.
That's important when evaluating a Bears team that is now being asked to lay more than a field goal against a division opponent.
Minnesota's Week 1 win was almost the opposite.
The Vikings trailed Green Bay 22-10 late in the third quarter before scoring 29 unanswered points to win 39-22. Starting quarterback Kyler Murray left in the first quarter with a concussion, forcing Carson Wentz into the game, and Minnesota still found a way to win comfortably.
The Vikings were actually outgained 419-239, so we're not pretending their Week 1 performance was dominant. But that's part of the argument here: Chicago is being upgraded after an inflated-looking blowout, while Minnesota is being discounted despite overcoming an early quarterback injury and winning by 17.
The gap between these teams isn't as large as the Week 1 scoreboards might make it appear.
We Trust Carson Wentz Enough
The biggest concern when taking an underdog is injuries, and Minnesota unquestionably has the more significant injury situation.
Murray has officially been ruled out with his concussion, meaning Carson Wentz will start in Chicago.
Normally, losing your starting quarterback would make us hesitant to back an underdog on the road.
This situation is different because we already saw Wentz operate Kevin O'Connell's offense successfully last week.
Wentz came off the bench and completed 12 of 19 passes for 133 yards and three touchdowns, helping Minnesota turn a 12-point deficit into a 17-point victory. He led four consecutive touchdown drives during the comeback and got Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson involved in the passing game.
We're not asking Wentz to carry Minnesota or outduel Caleb Williams for four quarters. We're asking a veteran quarterback with plenty of starting experience to keep a talented Vikings offense functional enough to stay within one score.
At +4.5, that's a much more manageable proposition.
Minnesota Can Survive the Jordan Mason Injury
The Vikings will also be without Jordan Mason, who underwent surgery for a fractured thumb and was placed on injured reserve. Mason had 15 carries for 59 yards and a touchdown against Green Bay and will miss at least four games.
That's a loss, but Minnesota has enough depth to handle it.
Aaron Jones remains available after splitting the workload with Mason last week, when Jones carried 12 times for 40 yards and a touchdown. Minnesota has also added additional depth behind him.
The bigger injury to monitor for Minnesota may actually be right tackle Brian O'Neill, who is questionable with a knee injury after missing Thursday's practice and returning on a limited basis Friday.
Still, between Jones, Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson and an experienced quarterback in Wentz, Minnesota has enough offensive talent to move the football.
Chicago's Secondary Is Worth Testing
Chicago's injury situation improved significantly by Friday, with the Bears carrying no official questionable, doubtful or out designations into the game.
But the secondary is still worth watching.
Kyler Gordon remains on injured reserve, while veteran safety Xavier Woods has been working his way back from a groin injury. Woods progressed from limited participation earlier in the week to full participation by Friday.
That doesn't mean Chicago's secondary is decimated, but against Jefferson and Hockenson, even some instability in the back end matters.
If Wentz can avoid turnovers and consistently get the ball to Minnesota's playmakers, the Vikings shouldn't need an explosive offensive performance to stay inside this number.
The Number Is the Story
Chicago should be favored at home.
The question is whether the Bears should be favored by more than a field goal against Minnesota.
That's where we disagree with the market.
The Bears' 59-point explosion against Carolina was impressive, but we're not willing to completely re-rate Chicago based on one inflated final score. Minnesota, meanwhile, showed it can survive adversity after losing its starting quarterback early and still beating Green Bay by double digits.
The Vikings have legitimate injury concerns. Murray is out. Mason is on IR. O'Neill's status needs to be monitored.
But those concerns are also a major reason we're getting +4.5.
This is still an NFC North divisional game between two teams that won comfortably in Week 1, and we see far less separation between them than this number suggests.
We expect a close game Sunday in Chicago.
Give us more than a field goal with the underdog.
Pick: Minnesota Vikings +4.5
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