NFL Best Bet: Detroit Lions vs. New England Patriots — Injuries and Scheduling Favor Detroit
We have a difficult time understanding why Detroit is still laying fewer than three points against New England in Sunday's international matchup. The Patriots enter this game with significant injury concerns, particularly at running back, while the Lions have the advantages of a more established offense, a favorable coaching situation and a division that has consistently performed well against opponents outside the NFC North.
Our approach to international games has generally been to back the favorite. These matchups introduce unusual travel schedules, unfamiliar routines and additional preparation challenges, and we prefer the team we believe is better equipped to handle those circumstances. Detroit fits that profile, especially with Dan Campbell leading a team that has consistently performed well as a favorite.
New England's Running Back Injuries Create a Major Problem
The biggest injury-based advantage in this matchup comes from New England's depleted backfield. Running back depth is particularly important in an international game, where maintaining offensive balance and avoiding obvious passing situations can help an offense settle into a rhythm.
If the Patriots cannot establish a reliable rushing attack, more responsibility falls on quarterback Drake Maye and the passing game. That creates an opportunity for Detroit to pressure the quarterback, attack predictable passing situations and force New England into longer third downs.
A compromised backfield also limits New England's ability to control possession and keep Detroit's offense off the field. Against a Lions team capable of sustaining drives and generating explosive plays, that could become a significant problem over four quarters.
New England's Offensive Injuries Favor Detroit
New England has already ruled out running back TreVeyon Henderson because of an illness, while leading rusher Rhamondre Stevenson remains uncertain with a knee injury. Stevenson missed Wednesday's practice before returning on a limited basis Thursday, leaving his effectiveness and availability in question.
That potentially leaves Corey Kiner handling a much larger workload against a physical Detroit defense. Kiner has shown promise, but asking a relatively inexperienced back to handle early-down rushing responsibilities, passing situations and blitz protection in an international game is a significant challenge.
The Patriots are also dealing with injuries elsewhere on offense. Starting guard Ben Brown has been ruled out with a knee injury, while tackle Morgan Moses (foot), tight end Hunter Henry (foot) and wide receiver A.J. Brown (ankle/knee) have been limited in practice. Those concerns could further complicate New England's ability to protect Maye and sustain drives.
Detroit isn't completely healthy either. Starting center Cade Mays has been ruled out with an ankle injury, while Amon-Ra St. Brown has been limited with a rib issue. Jared Goff, however, returned to full participation Thursday after dealing with a chest injury, an encouraging development for the Lions' offense.
The injury comparison favors Detroit, particularly at running back, where New England could be forced to rely heavily on its depth.
International Games Favor the Better-Prepared Team
One of our longstanding approaches to international NFL games has been to favor the favorite. These matchups involve unusual travel schedules, disrupted routines and unfamiliar surroundings, and we generally prefer backing the stronger, more established team.
Detroit has the offensive balance and coaching continuity to handle those challenges. Under Dan Campbell, the Lions have developed into a team we trust when favored, particularly against opponents with significant injury concerns.
The Lions also enter with a 6-2 record and four consecutive victories, while New England is 5-4 after losing two of its last three games. The Patriots were beaten 45-27 by Green Bay last week, with Maye throwing three interceptions.
Detroit has its own defensive injuries, including cornerback D.J. Reed and safety Kerby Joseph, who have both been ruled out. Those absences create some risk against New England's passing attack, but the Patriots' offensive line and backfield concerns could make it difficult to consistently exploit them.
The NFC North Continues to Set the Standard
Another important part of our handicap is the overall strength of the NFC North. The division has been one of the NFL's toughest, and we continue to look for opportunities to back its teams when they step outside divisional competition.
Detroit has been forced to compete against quality opponents throughout the season, and we believe that preparation matters against a New England team still trying to establish consistency.
The Lions also have a significant offensive advantage with Jahmyr Gibbs, one of the league's most productive running backs. Against a Patriots defense that struggled to contain Green Bay's passing attack last week, Detroit should be able to create favorable matchups both on the ground and through the air.
Detroit Should Be Laying More Than a Field Goal
We believe the market is giving New England too much credit in this matchup. The Patriots have significant uncertainty in their backfield, are missing an offensive line starter and have several other important contributors dealing with injuries.
Detroit, meanwhile, has the better offensive personnel, a coaching staff we trust in the favorite role and the benefit of playing against an opponent coming off a disappointing defensive performance.
We're particularly attracted to getting the Lions below the key number of three. With Henderson already ruled out and Stevenson questionable, New England could struggle to establish the balanced offense necessary to keep pace with Detroit.
Between the Patriots' injuries, our preference for international-game favorites and the overall strength of the NFC North, we see a favorable opportunity to back the Lions.
Pick: Detroit Lions -2.5 vs. New England Patriots
