Ravens vs. Colts Best Bet: Take the Points With Indianapolis at Home
This starts with the number. Our power ratings have Baltimore and Indianapolis separated by approximately 3.5 points on a neutral field. If that's an accurate representation of the difference between these teams, getting the Colts at +3.5 while they're playing at Lucas Oil Stadium creates value.
The market is currently dealing Baltimore as a 3.5-point road favorite, which means we're effectively getting the full difference between the teams in our ratings without Indianapolis receiving much credit for home-field advantage.
The injury numbers provide another small boost to the Indianapolis side.
The Colts currently hold a 4.4-point SIC Score advantage over Baltimore. That's not a massive enough differential to make this an injury-based bet by itself, but it strengthens a Colts position that we already like based on the number.
One of the key Baltimore injuries is defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike, who is working his way back following neck surgery. Madubuike has been limited in practice this week and hasn't played in a game since suffering the neck injury early last season. Baltimore has been deliberately cautious with his return, so even if he's available Sunday, the question isn't simply whether he plays—it's how close he is to his normal level of effectiveness.
Ravens are the better team but at this price its all about following the number.
Our ratings say the gap between Baltimore and Indianapolis is roughly 3.5 points. The Colts are at home, have the modest health advantage, and Baltimore has an important defensive player returning from major neck surgery who may not immediately be 100%.
Best Bet: Indianapolis Colts +3.5
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