College Football Best Bet: Rice vs. Florida Atlantic — History Repeats Itself
Sometimes the weather creates a significant matchup advantage, and that's exactly what we're looking at Saturday when Rice travels to Florida Atlantic.
Last week, Florida Atlantic was destroyed 56-24 by Army in adverse weather conditions. The Owls are a pass-heavy team that relies on throwing the football, while Army is built around its rushing attack. The conditions favored Army's offensive approach, and the Black Knights took full advantage.
Now, just one week later, history could repeat itself.
Florida Atlantic hosts another extremely run-heavy opponent in Rice, and once again, the weather could play a major role.
Weather Creates a Major Advantage for Rice
The forecast in Boca Raton calls for potentially wet and windy conditions, with sustained winds around 18-22 mph and gusts approaching 30 mph.
That's a significant concern for a Florida Atlantic offense built around quarterback Mason Veltkamp and its passing attack.
Wind can disrupt downfield throws, limit explosive passing plays and make it more difficult to consistently move the football through the air.
Rice, meanwhile, is much less dependent on throwing the football. The Owls operate a run-oriented offense that should be far less affected by the wind.
There's also a favorable matchup against a Florida Atlantic defense that has struggled to stop the run, allowing approximately 218 rushing yards per game.
If the forecast holds, Rice should be able to lean on its rushing attack, control possession and shorten the game.
Florida Atlantic's Offensive Injuries Add to the Concern
Florida Atlantic is also dealing with several offensive injuries that could make matters worse.
WR Kelby Valsin: Status uncertain after suffering an injury against Army. He's been an important part of Florida Atlantic's passing attack.
OL Vinny Fiacable: Starting right guard and team captain left last week's game with an injury and did not return. His availability remains uncertain.
WR RJ Garcia II: Listed with an undisclosed injury concern.
TE Brooks Johnson and Peter Cannon: Both have appeared on injury listings, with Cannon questionable.
These are particularly concerning injuries for a team already facing conditions that could limit its passing game.
The Number Is the Story
Florida Atlantic is favored by eight points, but we're getting more than a touchdown with a team whose offensive identity is much better suited for the expected conditions.
We saw this exact matchup disadvantage hurt Florida Atlantic against Army last week, and now the Owls must prepare for another opponent capable of controlling the game on the ground.
Rice doesn't need to win outright. It simply needs to establish the running game, shorten possessions and force Florida Atlantic to operate its passing offense in difficult conditions.
If the weather cooperates, this should be a much closer game than the spread suggests.
We'll gladly take more than a touchdown with the team better suited for the elements.
