Georgia vs. Western Kentucky Best Bet: Back the Bulldogs Early

Georgia enters Saturday's matchup against Western Kentucky as another massive favorite, but rather than laying more than 40 points for the full game, our preferred way to attack the matchup is Georgia -23.5 in the first half.

There is a long history of Georgia taking its foot off the gas once games against overmatched opponents are under control. Prior to last week's blowout of Tennessee State, the Bulldogs had gone 3-17-1 against the spread since 2010 when favored by more than 40 points.

That's exactly why we want to isolate the first half.

The expectation is that Georgia builds a lead of around 30 points before the game reaches the stage where Kirby Smart can empty the bench, protect his starters and turn his attention toward developing younger players. Once that happens, there's no reason to rely on Georgia continuing to aggressively build the margin.

We saw the ideal version of this strategy last week.

Georgia jumped on Tennessee State immediately, scoring touchdowns on each of its first five possessions. The Bulldogs led 28-0 after the first quarter and 35-3 at halftime, with starting quarterback Gunner Stockton exiting during the second quarter after completing 15 of 16 passes for 202 yards and three touchdowns.

Western Kentucky presents another opportunity for Georgia to start fast. The Hilltoppers opened their season with a 49-14 loss to Nevada, allowing 323 rushing yards. Georgia, meanwhile, produced 660 total yards in its opener, including 272 on the ground.

There is an injury component here as well.

One of Western Kentucky's top receiving options, K.D. Hutchinson, missed the Nevada game because of an ongoing knee injury and has since been classified as week-to-week. Hutchinson caught 66 passes for 618 yards and three touchdowns last season, making his uncertain status another potential problem for a WKU offense facing a massive step up in competition.

Georgia doesn't need to cover the enormous full-game number for this bet to cash. We simply need the Bulldogs to do what they did last week: overwhelm an inferior opponent while the starters are still on the field.

After halftime, all bets are off. Georgia can substitute liberally, shorten the game and prioritize staying healthy over running up the score.

That's why we're investing in the portion of the game where Georgia has the greatest incentive to dominate.

Best Bet: Georgia -23.5 First Half

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