2 min read • September 27, 2024
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In Partnership with Steve Fezzik - @FezzikSports on X
Famous sports bettor Steve Fezzik and injury analysis experts at SICscore.com are partnering throughout the season to provide deeper insights into how injuries and game dynamics affect betting outcomes.
Last week, the Jaguars were getting +4.5 points against the Buffalo Bills, but their performance was horrendous. Despite this, the betting line for their next game has shifted dramatically. Now, the Jaguars are facing the Houston Texans, a much weaker opponent by most expert power ratings, which rank Houston 3 to 5 points worse than Buffalo. This makes the line adjustment even more striking.
Consider this: the Jaguars are up against a significantly easier opponent, yet they’re being given an additional 1.5 to 2 points compared to last week. Typically, when a team performs poorly, the maximum downgrade would be around 2 points, yet this line seems to reflect a much larger correction than warranted.
While it's fair to downgrade the Jaguars after such a poor performance, the extent of this line adjustment seems excessive. The typical response for a bad game would not justify the additional points they’re being offered against Houston, indicating that the line may have been over-adjusted.
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