Looking to crush NFL prop bets this week? By analyzing player, team, and opponent health data, our algorithms project who is most likely to go Over or Under their sportsbook prop lines.
Below are our free injury-based prop bets for this week:
Jonathan Taylor (Indianapolis Colts) U71.5 Rushing Yards -111 DK (70.5, -114 FD & 67.5, -115 MGM)
Minnesota has one of the best run defenses in the league, with a defensive line that grades near the top on our scale, and the Colts are 6.5-point road underdogs. That is also the lowest total game on the Sunday slate (41.5), which means fewer snaps and a script that pushes Indianapolis away from the ground. Taylor has had 15 to 24 carries a game, but he has been held to 68 or fewer yards in two of his six games and to 45 on 15 carries in Week 5. At 71.5, the line is asking for a big day against the toughest front he's seen.
JJ McCarthy (New York Giants) U201.5 Passing Yards -111 DK (200.5, -114 FD & 204.5, -115 MGM)
Houston's pass rush is where this game is decided. The Texans' defensive line grades in the low 90s on pass defense, and the Giants' offensive line sits in the 70s. McCarthy has attempted only 20 passes in a Giants uniform, so there is almost no track record, and New York's pass-catching group is thin enough that the offense has to lean on Nabers. With a total of 42.5 and Houston a 10.5-point favorite, the Texans can play with the lead and pin their ears back.
Bucky Irving (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) O65.5 Rushing Yards -114 DK (-115 MGM, 66.5, -114 FD)
Irving's workload keeps climbing, with 16, 21 and 19 carries over the last three games and 165 yards in Week 5. He's averaging 86 yards a game over that stretch. Tampa Bay's run-blocking grades well and the Buccaneers have been able to lean on him as the lead back. The line sits 20 yards below his three-game average, and 65.5 at DK is the lowest number in the market.
Ashton Jeanty (Las Vegas Raiders) O53.5 Rushing Yards -114 FD (56.5, -109 DK)
The Rams have one of the weakest run defenses in the league, and their defensive line grades near the bottom on our scale. Jeanty's carries have fallen to 10 in each of the last two games with the ankle injury that has been bothering him. But the matchup is the best he's seen, and Mike Washington Jr. has been battling his own injury bug, likely giving Jeanty more carries.
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