A Fourth Straight Winning Season? NFL Kickoff Game is Here

Last year, we were 51-15-4 (+16 against the spread) in our five weekly regular season picks mimicking the Circa and Westgate Superbook contests. This matches our three-year Outkick documented record of 59% and +45 units ATS achieved by using health advantages from Sports Injury Central. 

Some interesting injury advantages exist is the season opener with the Chiefs hosting the Lions. 

DET+5.5 @ KC over 52.5 

The opening line of 7 and 54 have dipped on news of Travis Kelce’s injury. If you lean the way we do, take Detroit now but you can wait on the over as the numbers may continue to dip as the start tight end is ruled out. He is listed as “questionable” after hyper extending his knee. 

Thankfully, it seems the Kelce injury is the “best case” scenario but still a knee bone bruise means caution as it is basically a microscopic fracture that can get worse. Even if he feels good at pregame warmups, we don’t see him playing tonight. Based on my 17 years as an NFL head team physician, I doubt the quality Chiefs medical staff will chance the future of this star player. In fact, this type of injury is typically a multi-week absence. 

Even with Kelce likely out, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs can still produce offensively with Kadarius Toney back from an early training camp knee scope and Isiah Pacheco healthy from his shoulder surgery. The Lions weak point defensively is in the secondary with CB Emmanuel Mosley out as expected and FS Tracy Walker III with a lingering recovery from his Achilles tear. 

The Lions are essentially healthy offensively with WR Jameson Williams as the only starter missing but that is for gambling suspension not injury. Detroit didn’t have him all last year anyways, but this season looks promising being his second year after his ACL tear. 

The key here is the KC defense is missing some players up front. Defensive lineman Chris Jones (holdout) and Charles Omenihu (suspension) are both healthy but not available. Jones is the best defensive player and key CB L’Jarius Sneed is playing thru lingering knee issues. If Detroit establishes the line of scrimmage early, points may come more easily.