Quarterback is deeper than ever in fantasy football, making it more important to identify value rather than simply drafting the biggest name. Injuries, supporting casts, and offensive changes all play a major role in determining who can outperform or underperform their ADP. Here are two quarterbacks we're targeting in 2026 drafts and two we're avoiding based on current value.

Quarterbacks to Avoid

Jaxson Dart (New York Giants)

Dart is currently being drafted as the 10th quarterback off the board, and that's a price we're not comfortable paying.

The biggest concern is durability. Dart enters the season with a concerning concussion history, something that can't be ignored when investing in a starting fantasy quarterback. He also projects to rely heavily on Malik Nabers, who is not entering 2026 at full health. If Nabers isn't at 100% or misses time, the Giants' passing game could struggle to consistently produce fantasy points.

Dart certainly has upside, but at his current ADP you're paying close to his ceiling rather than accounting for the significant risks surrounding his health and supporting cast.

Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)

Patrick Mahomes remains one of the NFL's best quarterbacks, but fantasy football is about production, not reputation.

While reports that Mahomes avoided the PUP list are encouraging, we at Sports Injury Central (SICScore.com) remain skeptical that he'll be fully ready for the start of the regular season after his significant knee injury. Even if he suits up early in the season, there's a difference between being available and being fully healthy.

Mahomes still makes sense as a later-round stash if he slips in drafts, but expecting him to produce elite QB1 numbers from Week 1 may be unrealistic. At his current price, we'd rather let someone else take on that risk.

Quarterbacks to Target

Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals)

Joe Burrow is a quarterback we'll be highlighting often this offseason.

After an injury-riddled 2025 campaign, Burrow enters 2026 with a healthy supporting cast and one of the league's most favorable schedules. Cincinnati projects to face the third-easiest schedule, creating an excellent opportunity for the Bengals' offense to bounce back.

With his weapons healthy and an offense capable of producing explosive plays every week, Burrow has all the ingredients for another elite statistical season and offers legitimate top-three fantasy quarterback upside.

C.J. Stroud (Houston Texans)

C.J. Stroud is one of our favorite draft values at quarterback.

Currently being drafted as the QB22, Stroud is significantly undervalued for a player with his talent and offensive situation. Houston's offense never found its rhythm after losing its starting running back before the 2025 season, forcing Stroud into too many difficult situations.

The Texans addressed that issue by acquiring David Montgomery, whose physical running style should bring balance back to the offense. Houston also gets Tank Dell back, giving Stroud another explosive weapon alongside Nico Collins.

With improved health around him, a stronger running game, and additional playmaking ability at wide receiver, Stroud has a clear path to outperform his ADP. We'd be comfortable drafting him ahead of quarterbacks currently being selected before him, including Malik Willis, making Stroud one of the better quarterback values in 2026 fantasy drafts.

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