2 min read • December 09, 2022
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Since Week 11, Just Herbert has finished the fantasy QB9, QB3, and QB9. He’s middle of the pack in adjusted completion rate and yards per attempt. But he’s eighth in big-time throws.
This week he faces the Dolphins’ defense with an 82.4 SIC score. Last week they gave up 210 passing yards and touchdowns to “Mr. Irrelevant” Brock Purdy in his first NFL start. Also, Herbert should be playing with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this weekend, which has rarely happened this season.
After taking a couple of weeks to recover from a brutal concussion, Smith-Schuster was thrown back into a full-time role last week with a 17.4% target share and 80.6% route run rate. Smith-Schuster is 16th in red zone targets and has run 52.1% of his routes from the slot since week 12. Since week 8, the Broncos have allowed slot receivers the ninth-most fantasy points per game.
The Broncos also have one of the lowest pass defense SIC Scores with a 68.4 grade. The team has faced injuries in their cornerback and safety room. Look for Smith-Schuster to have a bounce-back game.
The Jets have gone 1-1 since quarterback Mike White took over and by far the greatest beneficiary has been rookie wide receiver Garrett Wilson.
The top-10 pick set career highs in targets, 15, and receiving yards, 162, in an eight-catch game against the Vikings; the performance followed up a 95-yard, two-touchdown game against the Bears.
The Bills allowed eight receptions for 92 yards in their loss to the Jets in Week 9 and still carry a league-low pass defense SIC score of 67.3, compared to 89.6 for the 7-5 Jets.
Top cornerback Tre'Davious White has returned in a limited capacity from his torn ACL with an SIC score of 60 and the losses of Von Miller and Greg Rousseau will leave the DBs more vulnerable to extended and broken plays.
The Bengals’ every-down back has cleared concussion protocol after missing the last two contests and should have no ill-effects. He gets a matchup against a Browns defense down to their third-string middle linebacker after the loss of Anthony Walker Jr. and Jacob Phillips.
Cleveland has allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs this season, including 11 points to Dameon Pierce last week and 15.4 points to Rachaad White the week prior. Dual-threat backs tend to do better against the Browns and Mixon fits that mold.
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