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Alvin Kamara vs. Saquon Barkley vs Nick Chubb: Which Running Back is the Safest Choice?

2 min read • August 26, 2022

Posted in

NFL
Alvin Kamara vs. Saquon Barkley vs Nick Chubb: Which Running Back is the Safest Choice?

Saquon Barkley - SIC score 93

(FantasyPros: 0.5-point PPR Average Draft Position 19.7)

Saquon Barkley has faced various injuries in the last couple of seasons, including an ACL tear and, most recently, an ankle sprain. But, the Giants have failed Barkley in previous seasons by producing a bottom 10 offensive line.

The Giant’s run offense on first down had a 45% success rate, which was 3% below the league’s average. The second-down success rate was 10% below the league average, and their third-down success was on par with the league’s average. The team struggled to create holes at the line of scrimmage consistently.

But, in two of the last three drafts, the team has drafted two run-blocking offensive tackles. Evan Neal and Andrew Thomas were graded as top-run blockers in their time in the SEC. This should help grow the success rate of runs by Barkley. 

Alvin Kamara - SIC score 92

(FantasyPros: 0.5-point PPR Average Draft Position 18.0)

Last season Alvin Kamara had 22.1 touches per game, which ranked third among running backs. Also, he had a career-best 287 touches and ranked as the RB6 in points per game in 2021.

Kamara’s volume helped create many opportunities for the Saint’s offense with limited weapons. But, the additions of Chris Olave, Jarvis Landy and Michael Thomas could result in Kamara getting fewer touches.

Kamara did miss four games in 2021 with an MCL sprain. But his prior knee injuries shouldn’t limit his production, according to the Pro Football Docs. However, 2021 was the first season in which Kamara did not register 81 receptions. 

His quarterback, Jameis Winston, suffered a torn ACL with MCL damage last Halloween and sprained his right foot in practice in early August. But, he returned to practice fully this week for the first time this preseason. Winston’s availability should help Kamara face less crowded backfields.

By having more weapons in the Saint’s offense, Kamara won’t be the sole focus of defensive coordinators. Look for his career-low 3.7 YPC to inch closer to his career-average 4.6 YPC.

Nick Chubb - SIC score 91

(FantasyPros: 0.5-point PPR Average Draft Position 15.3)

According to Warren Sharp, the best offensive line unit in the NFL belongs to the Cleveland Browns. But, even when the top offensive line in Cleveland breaks down, Nick Chubb has churned out a league-best 12% or more yards after contact, while the league average was only 3%. He’s the most efficient running back in the NFL and has never averaged less than four yards per carry in his career.

Chubb suffered a calf and rib injury during the 2021 season. But, in the games he played, he averaged  17.3 PPR points per game, which would have ranked sixth last season. Chubb was second in the league in rushing yards and registered eight touchdowns.

His only flaw is that as a receiver, he’s averaged less than two targets per game and is in a crowded backfield with Kareem Hunt.

But, with Deshaun Watson and Jacoby Brissett providing stable quarterback play, he should be a part of a high-scoring offense.

Deshaun Watson
Deshaun Watson
Michael Thomas
Michael Thomas
Alvin Kamara
Alvin Kamara
Jameis Winston
Jameis Winston
Michael Thomas
Michael Thomas
Jacoby Brissett
Jacoby Brissett
Chris Olave
Chris Olave
Evan Neal
Evan Neal
Nick Chubb
Nick Chubb
Andrew Thomas
Andrew Thomas
Saquon Barkley
Saquon Barkley
Kareem Hunt
Kareem Hunt
Philadelphia EaglesNew England PatriotsNew York GiantsNew Orleans SaintsKansas City ChiefsCleveland Browns

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