This is admittedly a terrible scheduling spot for BYU. The Cougars have a massive showdown with Notre Dame on deck, creating the classic lookahead situation where a highly ranked team could overlook an inferior conference opponent. However, we believe the betting market has gone too far in accounting for that possibility, creating significant value on BYU laying 10 points at home against Iowa State.

From a pure power-rating perspective, we believe BYU should be favored by considerably more than 10 points. The Cougars are undefeated, ranked No. 8 nationally and have established themselves as one of the better teams in the Big 12. Yet the current number appears to be heavily influenced by the scheduling situation, BYU's unimpressive 17-10 victory over TCU last week and injuries to several important players.

The line has reportedly fallen from an opening BYU -14.5 to approximately -10.5, illustrating just how much the market has adjusted. At -10, we believe that adjustment has become excessive.

Why BYU Is Different From Most Lookahead Teams

One of the biggest reasons we're comfortable backing BYU in this spot is the makeup of its roster and program.

BYU is one of those schools that consistently benefits from having older, more physically mature players. The Cougars have traditionally featured players who are older than the typical college football athlete, in part because of missionary service and the program's roster construction.

That maturity matters in situations like this.

While younger teams can be susceptible to emotional letdowns and looking ahead to marquee opponents, we believe BYU is the type of program that delivers an honest, disciplined effort every week.

Head coach Kalani Sitake has established a culture built around physicality, consistency and accountability. We don't expect the Cougars to suddenly overlook a conference opponent simply because Notre Dame is next on the schedule.

Iowa State is also a familiar Big 12 opponent, and BYU understands the importance of protecting its conference standing.

Iowa State Defensive Injuries Create Additional Value

Iowa State enters Friday's matchup dealing with several important defensive injuries, particularly along the defensive front.

  • Caden Crawford — DE: OUT.

  • Ka'Mori Moore — DT: OUT.

  • Rylan Barnes — LB: OUT.

  • Drew Surges — S: OUT.

  • Christian Greenlaw — TE: PROBABLE.

The losses of Crawford and Moore create a defensive-line cluster, while Barnes adds another absence to the front seven. Surges' absence also weakens the secondary.

These injuries are especially concerning against a BYU offense that has demonstrated an ability to control possession and sustain drives. Even with the Cougars missing their top running back, Iowa State's compromised defensive front could struggle to consistently win at the line of scrimmage.

The Cyclones are also making their first trip outside Iowa this season, traveling to Provo for a late Friday-night kickoff.

BYU's Injuries Are Real, but the Market Has Accounted for Them

There are legitimate injury concerns on the BYU side as well.

  • LJ Martin — RB: OUT.

  • Sione Moa — RB: OUT.

  • Isaiah Glasker — LB: OUT.

  • Raider Damuni — S: OUT.

  • Cannon DeVries — CB: DOUBTFUL.

Martin is the biggest offensive loss. The reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year was averaging 7.8 yards per carry before suffering his injury against TCU.

His absence creates a real challenge for BYU's rushing attack, particularly with Moa also unavailable.

However, quarterback Bear Bachmeier gives BYU another dimension with his mobility, and the Cougars have additional running backs capable of contributing. Bachmeier has also been efficient through the air, completing approximately 64% of his passes with six touchdowns against one interception.

The loss of Glasker is significant defensively, but BYU has enough talent and experience to compensate against an Iowa State offense that is still developing under a new coaching staff.

The important distinction is that we're not ignoring BYU's injuries. We simply believe the market has already adjusted substantially for those absences.

Power Ratings Over Scheduling Narratives

The primary argument against BYU is straightforward: Notre Dame is next.

But lookahead spots don't automatically make a team overvalued. The question is whether the market has properly accounted for that scheduling disadvantage.

We believe it has done more than that.

BYU's power rating, home-field advantage and overall roster quality point toward a larger favorite than the current spread. Iowa State's defensive injuries only strengthen that argument.

The Cougars also have a meaningful advantage playing at home in Provo, where the combination of altitude, crowd support and a late kickoff creates an additional challenge for visiting teams.

BYU doesn't need to play its absolute best game to cover this number. It needs to deliver the disciplined, physical performance we've come to expect from Sitake's program.

The Pick: BYU -10 -110