The market continues to give Hawai‘i a lot of respect, particularly at home, but at some point we have to acknowledge that this simply hasn't been a very good football team through the first month of the season.
Hawai‘i enters this matchup just 1-3 overall and 0-2 in Mountain West play, yet the Rainbow Warriors are still laying a field goal against San Jose State. The home-field advantage in Honolulu is real and deserves to be accounted for, but even after giving Hawai‘i a substantial home adjustment, our power ratings still make San Jose State the better team.
That's what makes getting the full +3 attractive.
The injury situation gives us another reason to question Hawai‘i's offense.
The Rainbow Warriors have a legitimate cluster developing at wide receiver. Pofele Ashlock is OUT again and has yet to play this season. That's a significant absence considering Ashlock produced at least 600 receiving yards and six touchdowns in each of his previous three seasons.
Robert Haynes IV is also OUT for the season, while Tre’ Griffiths is QUESTIONABLE with an undisclosed injury. Jarvis Heimuli has also been dealing with an injury. Hawai‘i has therefore been forced to operate without several pieces from what was expected to be a much deeper receiving corps.
San Jose State, meanwhile, currently has no injuries listed on the matchup injury report.
The injuries matter even more because Hawai‘i's offense hasn't been particularly efficient when healthy enough to move the football.
Micah Alejado entered the season as the Mountain West preseason Offensive Player of the Year, but Hawai‘i has struggled badly to turn drives into touchdowns. The Rainbow Warriors are converting just 43.75% of their red-zone opportunities into touchdowns, and last week's loss at Wyoming was another example. Hawai‘i put together a 16-play, 74-yard drive that reached the 1-yard line and still came away without points.
They ultimately scored only 10 points in a 27-10 loss.
The running game hasn't provided enough of an answer either. Cam Barfield has been dealing with an ankle injury, while Hawai‘i's defense has consistently struggled against the run.
That's an important matchup for San Jose State because Jabari Bates has shown he can carry the offense. He ran for 163 yards on 27 carries against Cal Poly after producing 119 rushing yards at Eastern Michigan. If San Jose State can establish Bates, it can shorten the game, keep Alejado off the field and reduce the impact of Hawai‘i's home-field advantage.
We're getting the better-rated team plus a full field goal against a 1-3 Hawai‘i team with an injured receiving corps, red-zone problems and a defense that has been vulnerable on the ground.
Hawai‘i's home-field advantage is already baked into this number. I don't think it should be enough to make the Rainbow Warriors a field-goal favorite.
Pick: San Jose State +3
