In baseball, injuries have an outsized impact because of the sport’s reliance on depth, particularly within pitching staffs, where one absence can create a ripple effect across the rotation and bullpen over a 162-game season. This creates opportunity in the futures market, as sportsbooks often price teams based on talent rather than realistic health outcomes. Teams dealing with multiple injuries, especially in key areas like starting pitching or bullpen roles, are more vulnerable to sustained struggles, making unders valuable when depth is compromised. By identifying clusters of injuries and understanding how they affect roster stability over the long season, bettors can take advantage of early market inefficiencies before those issues are fully reflected in the standings.
Below are a handful of Injury-Based MLB Win Totals:
Atlanta Braves Under 87.5
The Braves are dealing with significant injuries, particularly across their pitching staff, which could have a major impact on both rotation stability and bullpen depth. The starting rotation has been hit hard, with Spencer Strider (oblique) now sidelined with no timetable, while AJ Smith-Shawver and Spencer Schwellenbach are both recovering from elbow surgeries, Hurston Waldrep is out following arthroscopic elbow work, and Joey Wentz is lost for the season with a torn knee ligament, leaving Atlanta thin in pitching depth. The bullpen is also compromised, with Danny Young recovering from Tommy John surgery, Daysbel Hernández dealing with shoulder inflammation, and Joe Jiménez working back from knee surgery and questionable for the season, creating uncertainty in late-inning roles. Offensively, there are notable concerns as well, with catcher Sean Murphy recovering from hip labrum surgery and questionable for Opening Day, while Ha-Seong Kim is expected to miss time into early May following hand surgery, impacting both lineup production and defensive stability up the middle. Overall, the Braves enter the season with key injuries to the staff giving value to the under heading into the new season.
Houston Astros Under 85.5
Houston enters the season with significant health concerns that are heavily concentrated in their pitching staff. The starting rotation has been hit hardest, with Hayden Wesneski, Ronel Blanco, and Brandon Walter all recovering from Tommy John surgery—Walter is out for the season, while the others remain questionable to return this season—leaving the Astros thin in both current and future rotation options. The bullpen is also unsettled, as closer Josh Hader is sidelined with biceps inflammation and no timetable, Bennett Sousa is dealing with an oblique strain, Nate Pearson has elbow discomfort, and Enyel De Los Santos is questionable with a knee issue, forcing an early reshuffling of late-inning roles. Offensively, Jeremy Peña is questionable for Opening Day with a fractured finger, and Zach Dezenzo is dealing with elbow soreness. Pitching depth looks to be a long term issue for the Astros this season leading to value in the under win total.
Arizona Diamondbacks U79.5
Widespread injury concerns across multiple position groups, with the most significant cluster coming on the pitching side is just one of the main injury issues plaguing the Diamondbacks. The rotation is already compromised with Corbin Burnes and Blake Walston recovering from Tommy John surgery, while Merrill Kelly (back) and Cristian Mena (shoulder) are both questionable for Opening Day, creating early-season instability and depth concerns. The bullpen is also heavily impacted, with Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk both recovering from Tommy John procedures, Andrew Saalfrank out for the entire 2026 season following shoulder surgery, and Colin Selby without a clear timetable due to shoulder inflammation, leaving the relief unit thin and uncertain. Offensively, there are key injuries as well, highlighted by Lourdes Gurriel Jr. recovering from a torn ACL and expected to miss most of the season, while Corbin Carroll (hamate surgery), Pavin Smith (forearm), and Gabriel Moreno (elbow) are all questionable for Opening Day. Overall, the Diamondbacks enter the season with significant injury clusters in both their pitching staff and core lineup, particularly in high-impact roles, which could affect both early performance and long-term depth throughout the season.
New York Yankees U90.5
New York enters the season with mounting concerns centered around the health of its starting rotation, creating uncertainty at the top of the staff. Gerrit Cole is sidelined following Tommy John surgery with no clear timetable, while Clarke Schmidt is also recovering from a similar procedure and remains without a return timeline, removing two key rotation pieces. Carlos Rodón adds to the concern as he works back from elbow surgery and is questionable for Opening Day, leaving the Yankees potentially short-handed early in the season. On the position player side, shortstop Anthony Volpe is recovering from shoulder surgery and is also questionable for Opening Day, which could impact both defensive stability and lineup continuity. Overall, the Yankees are dealing with a heavy concentration of injuries in their rotation along with a key infield question mark, creating roster volatility and depth concerns.
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