Looking to crush NFL prop bets this week? By analyzing player, team, and opponent health data, our algorithms project who is most likely to go Over or Under their sportsbook prop lines.
Below are our free injury-based prop bets for this week:
Rome Odunze (Chicago Bears) U48.5 Receiving Yards -110 DK (48.5, -114 FD & 48.5, -115 MGM)
Tampa Bay comes into Chicago with one of the healthiest secondaries in the league. All three of its corners and both safeties are healthy going into Sunday, and its pass defense ranks 3rd overall. Chicago's left tackle spot has slipped since Braxton Jones went on IR, so Caleb Williams won't have as long to look downfield. Odunze has been held to 52 or fewer yards in five of his eight games and to six or fewer targets in six of them. He shares the field with Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland, so the volume isn't there to beat a secondary this healthy. Chicago is a 6-point home favorite and may not need to throw late.
Chris Olave (New Orleans Saints) U73.5 Receiving Yards -113 DK (72.5, -115 MGM & 71.5, -114 FD)
The Saints' offensive line is banged up. Kelvin Banks is on IR, Asim Richards is questionable with a thumb injury, and Dillon Radunz is out for the year, which leaves both spots on the left side of the line vulnerable. Cleveland's corners are healthy, and the secondary ranks in the top 10. This is also the lowest total on the slate (42.5). New Orleans is a 3.5-point home favorite against Shedeur Sanders, who is starting in place of Deshaun Watson. That's a script where the Saints can lean on the clock rather than the passing game. Olave opened the year hot, but his last three games went 46, 43 and 56 yards on 6 to 10 targets. 73.5 at DK is the highest number in the market.
Javonte Williams (Dallas Cowboys) O70.5 Rushing Yards -114 FD (72.5, -111 DK & 73.5, -115 MGM)
Indianapolis' run defense is the matchup to target. Arden Key and Micheal Clemons are both on IR, and the Colts' defensive line grades near the bottom of the league against the run on our scale, 28th of 32. Linebacker Akeem Davis-Gaither is also out. On the other side, Dallas has all five offensive line starters healthy, and its run blocking ranks 3rd in the league. Williams' workload has jumped to 25 and 24 carries over the last two games. That stretch included a 155-yard day against Philadelphia, and the 70.5 at FD is the lowest line available.
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