We're keeping the player prop card limited this week, focusing on three opportunities where injuries, matchups and projected usage could create value. Two plays target running backs positioned for significant workloads, while the third fades a veteran receiver returning from injury against a relatively healthy secondary.
1. Ashton Jeanty (Las Vegas Raiders) Over 49.5 Rushing Yards vs. New York Jets
The Raiders' Ashton Jeanty gets one of the more favorable injury-based matchups of the week against a Jets defensive front missing several important contributors. Defensive tackle T'Vondre Sweat (knee) and edge rusher Joseph Ossai (ankle) have both been ruled out, while rookie edge rusher David Bailey (groin) is doubtful after missing all three practices. That's a significant amount of missing personnel up front and should create opportunities for Jeanty to establish the running game.
Las Vegas also has some offensive line concerns, with tackle DJ Glaze dealing with an ankle injury and interior lineman Jackson Powers-Johnson appearing on the injury report with a back issue. Those injuries are worth monitoring, but the Jets' defensive absences are the bigger factor in our assessment. With a rushing line around 49.5 yards, Jeanty doesn't need an exceptional performance to clear this number. We prefer the rushing-only market over his 81.5 rushing-plus-receiving total because the strongest advantage is against New York's depleted defensive front, rather than relying on additional production through the air.
2. Derrick Henry (Baltimore Ravens) Over 78.5 Rushing Yards vs. Buffalo Bills
Baltimore's Derrick Henry faces Buffalo in a matchup where the Ravens should have every reason to lean on their established rushing attack. Quarterback Lamar Jackson is expected to return after missing three games with an ankle injury, and his presence should make it more difficult for Buffalo to concentrate exclusively on Henry. Even if Jackson isn't quite as mobile as usual, Baltimore can protect its quarterback by emphasizing designed handoffs and a physical running game.
The Bills have their own defensive injury concerns. Defensive lineman Greg Gaines is questionable after suffering a calf injury during Friday's practice, while edge rusher T.J. Parker has also been dealing with a knee injury. However, defensive tackle Ed Oliver is expected to return, which is an important counterpoint to the injury advantage. Baltimore will also be without starting guard Vega Ioane (knee), making this a less straightforward matchup than Jeanty's. Still, Henry has the workload and big-play ability to surpass a number below 80 yards, especially if Baltimore remains committed to establishing the run.
3. Calvin Ridley (Tennessee Titans) Under 24.5 Receiving Yards vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Tennessee wide receiver Calvin Ridley is questionable with a hip injury after missing last week's game against Cleveland. Ridley was limited in practice Wednesday and Thursday before returning to full participation Friday, suggesting he has a reasonable chance to play. However, being active doesn't necessarily mean he'll immediately return to full effectiveness, particularly at a position that requires repeated acceleration, sharp cuts and separation.
Cincinnati enters this matchup with its primary cornerbacks available, while safety Jordan Battle has no game designation despite dealing with a hamstring injury. Safety Kyle Dugger is out with a quadriceps injury, so the Bengals aren't completely healthy in the secondary, but they remain in better shape than a number of defenses around the league. Tennessee will also be without rookie receiver Carnell Tate (shoulder), potentially increasing Ridley's opportunities, although that could also allow Cincinnati to devote more attention to him. Ridley has produced just 81 receiving yards across five appearances this season, averaging 16.2 per game. Given his limited production, recent absence and hip injury, we prefer the under even at a relatively modest number.
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