Looking to crush NFL prop bets ahead of the Super-Bowl? By analyzing player, team, and opponent health data, our algorithms project who is most likely to go Over or Under their sportsbook prop lines.
Below are six injury-based prop bets:
Drake Maye Passing Yards Set Up for Another Under
Drake Maye (New England Patriots) Under 222.5 Passing Yards
Maye is dealing with a new right shoulder issue, first identified by sicscore.com, and it continues to show up in both his production and New England’s offensive approach. He has gone under this passing-yardage number in three of his last four games, and the injury only reinforces a conservative game plan built around limiting risk. With shoulder discomfort affecting velocity and willingness to attack downfield, the Patriots are unlikely to ask their young quarterback to carry the offense through the air. This number remains vulnerable as long as New England prioritizes ball control and mistake avoidance.
Rhamondre Stevenson’s Workload Points to the Over
Rhamondre Stevenson (New England Patriots) Over 14.5 Rushing Attempts
Stevenson has clearly re-established himself as the Patriots’ bellcow, and his role aligns perfectly with both game script and matchup. New England is incentivized to protect its quarterback, which naturally pushes volume toward the run game. Stevenson’s physical, downhill running style is also well-suited to attack a Seahawks linebacker group dealing with injuries, increasing the likelihood that his carry count stays elevated throughout the game.
Kenneth Walker’s Volume Hasn’t Translated to Production
Kenneth Walker III (Seattle Seahawks) Under 75.5 Rushing Yards
Even with the Seattle backfield largely to himself due to Zach Charbonnet being out with an ACL tear, Walker’s efficiency has remained inconsistent. He has gone over this rushing-yard mark in just three of his last ten games, showing that workload alone hasn’t been enough to overcome defensive attention and game flow. As a result, the under continues to be the sharper side despite his lead-back status.
Shoulder Injury Clouds Drake Thomas’s Tackle Outlook
Drake Thomas (Seattle Seahawks) Under 5.5 Tackles + Assists
Thomas exited his most recent game with a shoulder injury, and that uncertainty directly impacts his tackle projection. Even if he suits up, his snap count and effectiveness could be limited, opening the door for increased reps from Tyrice Knight. With reduced time on the field likely, Thomas faces an uphill battle to clear this number.
Injuries Create a Clear Path for Christian Ellis
Christian Ellis (New England Patriots) Over 5.5 Tackles + Assists
New England’s linebacker unit is dealing with multiple injuries, including Harold Landry Jr. and Robert Spillane being hampered. Those absences push Ellis into a more prominent role, both in snap count and responsibility. With Seattle expected to lean on the run game, Ellis should be positioned to stay active around the ball and rack up tackles.
Hunter Henry Poised to Exploit the Middle of the Field
Hunter Henry (New England Patriots) Over 38.5 Receiving Yards
Seattle’s linebacker issues open up the exact area of the field where Henry does his best work. With New England likely limiting deep passing concepts, the offense should funnel targets toward short and intermediate routes over the middle. Henry has gone over this receiving-yardage number in six of his last ten games, and the matchup only strengthens his outlook in this spot.
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